The media had highlighted the Belgaum south AC as a BIG fight game with three stalwarts Abhay Patil, Sambhaji Patil and Anil Potdar fighting out each other.
This time the main reason for the victory of MES candidate Sambhaji Patil is that there were no rebels. Sambhaji Patil secured 54426 votes that is 41.24%. Abhay Patil of the BJP and the sitting MLA secured 48116 votes which is 36.46%. In 2008 Abhay Patil had secured 39.97 % votes and had won. So his share of votes have declined and they entirely look to have gone to the MES candidate. In 2008 Sambhaji Patil was a congress candidate and had secured 24.84% and MES candidate Saynak had got 28.61% votes.
So you would say then that this time the % vote should have been 53%, but Anil Potdar came in to get the votes but he was not very successful as there are not many minority votes in this constituency.
The Rebels helped Sanjay Patil to regain Belgaum Rural Seat, story is a complete opposite here. Due to no rebels MES could taste victory here.
Also one more reason could be the anti incumbency against the sitting MLA which made people to vote for Sambhaji Patil.