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Know which party is leading in the Opinion Polls for Belagavi Assembly Elections

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love dale belagavi

We had conducted an on-line opinion Poll for the THREE assembly constituencies namely Belagavi North, Belagavi South and Belagavi Rural.
We are not here to declare a winner but to just show the trend. There are almost 6 months to elections and anything can happen in these coming months. This is just the opinion and may be the tip of the iceberg. 

Some important Disclaimers:
Sample size –
Most surveys in India end up interviewing less than 0.05% voters. Our sample size was 1154 in total. As per the above size it should have been more than 344 and we have received opinions from 1154.

desha

Belagavi North – 50.4 % (registered voters – 226104 as per Jan 2017 List)
Belagavi South –
39.4 % (registered voters – 228105 as per Jan 2017 List)
Belagavi Rural –
10.3 % (registered voters – 232737 as per Jan 2017 List)

Opinions were gathered from 19-11-2017 to 27-11-2017

opinion poll belagavi belgaum

Only Registered Voters –

Only those opinions were registered who were voters. There were 5.4% of the people who took this opinion poll but did not opine as they were not registered Voters in any of the 3 constituencies.

One Gmail ID one vote – This has also put a restriction on possible multiple voting to a great extent.

Internet savvy people bias –
As this was a Internet based poll, only those persons who were Internet savvy have voted hence this is a big limitation.

Margin of Error – As the responses were not gathered in person like other opinion polls, there can be a margin of error.
But one has to understand that we arent really predicting seats, we are just trying to get the sense of the voters and their alignment with a political party.

The poll was analyzed and summarized by Rajendra Pai.


Poll Outcomes:

Belagavi North: 2013 Winning margin – 15.81%
50.3% of the voters preferred to vote for
Bharatiya Janata Party
30.3% of the voters preferred to vote for Indian National Congress
3.3% of the voters preferred to vote for MES
1.5 % of the voters preferred to vote for JD(S)
10.5% of the voters have preferred to Vote for Ramakant Konduskar ( We included this as % of the votes is a huge chunk of votes.)
Also importantly there were names of AIMIM, IUML who got less than .5%

35.64% of the voters in the age group of 31-40 preferred BJP, then came 26-30 years, 23-25 years.
32.53% of the voters in the age group of 31-40 preferred INC, then came 26-30 years


Belagavi South:
2013 winning margin 4.78 %
76.7 % of the voters preferred to vote for Bharatiya Janata Party
11 % of the voters preferred to vote for Indian National Congress
9.3 % of the voters preferred to vote for MES
1.2 % of the voters preferred to vote for JD(S)

29.27 % of the voters in the age group of 31-40 preferred BJP
36.17 % of the voters in the age group of 31-40 preferred INC

 

Belagavi Rural: 2013 Winning Margin 0.88 %
58.9
% of the voters preferred to vote for Bharatiya Janata Party
18.8 % of the voters preferred to vote for Indian National Congress
17 % of the voters preferred to vote for MES
2.7 % of the voters preferred to vote for JD(S)
0.9 % of the voters preferred to vote for AAP

25.76 % of the voters in the age group of 31-40 preferred BJP
23.81 % of the voters in the age group of 31-40 preferred INC

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4 COMMENTS

  1. ghar ghar Modi,har har Modi,
    Roads are under jurisdiction of State Govt.so congress must loose and country is growing so BJP and Modi should rule for another atleast 15 Years.

  2. You all should think about Belgaum roads opinion poll according to area you will get worst roads at 90% and good roads at 10% please do something for this

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