Know which party is leading in the Opinion Polls for Belagavi Assembly Elections

We had conducted an on-line opinion Poll for the THREE assembly constituencies namely Belagavi North, Belagavi South and Belagavi Rural.
We are not here to declare a winner but to just show the trend. There are almost 6 months to elections and anything can happen in these coming months. This is just the opinion and may be the tip of the iceberg. 

Some important Disclaimers:
Sample size –
Most surveys in India end up interviewing less than 0.05% voters. Our sample size was 1154 in total. As per the above size it should have been more than 344 and we have received opinions from 1154.

Belagavi North – 50.4 % (registered voters – 226104 as per Jan 2017 List)
Belagavi South – 39.4 % (registered voters – 228105 as per Jan 2017 List)
Belagavi Rural – 10.3 % (registered voters – 232737 as per Jan 2017 List)

Opinions were gathered from 19-11-2017 to 27-11-2017

Only Registered Voters –

Only those opinions were registered who were voters. There were 5.4% of the people who took this opinion poll but did not opine as they were not registered Voters in any of the 3 constituencies.

One Gmail ID one vote – This has also put a restriction on possible multiple voting to a great extent.

Internet savvy people bias –
As this was a Internet based poll, only those persons who were Internet savvy have voted hence this is a big limitation.

Margin of Error – As the responses were not gathered in person like other opinion polls, there can be a margin of error.
But one has to understand that we arent really predicting seats, we are just trying to get the sense of the voters and their alignment with a political party.

The poll was analyzed and summarized by Rajendra Pai.

Poll Outcomes:

Belagavi North: 2013 Winning margin – 15.81%
50.3% of the voters preferred to vote for Bharatiya Janata Party
30.3% of the voters preferred to vote for Indian National Congress
3.3% of the voters preferred to vote for MES
1.5 % of the voters preferred to vote for JD(S)
10.5% of the voters have preferred to Vote for Ramakant Konduskar ( We included this as % of the votes is a huge chunk of votes.)
Also importantly there were names of AIMIM, IUML who got less than .5%

35.64% of the voters in the age group of 31-40 preferred BJP, then came 26-30 years, 23-25 years.
32.53% of the voters in the age group of 31-40 preferred INC, then came 26-30 years

Belagavi South: 2013 winning margin 4.78 %
76.7 % of the voters preferred to vote for Bharatiya Janata Party
11 % of the voters preferred to vote for Indian National Congress
9.3 % of the voters preferred to vote for MES
1.2 % of the voters preferred to vote for JD(S)

29.27 % of the voters in the age group of 31-40 preferred BJP
36.17 % of the voters in the age group of 31-40 preferred INC

Belagavi Rural: 2013 Winning Margin 0.88 %
58.9 % of the voters preferred to vote for Bharatiya Janata Party
18.8 % of the voters preferred to vote for Indian National Congress
17 % of the voters preferred to vote for MES
2.7 % of the voters preferred to vote for JD(S)
0.9 % of the voters preferred to vote for AAP

25.76 % of the voters in the age group of 31-40 preferred BJP
23.81 % of the voters in the age group of 31-40 preferred INC

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